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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."