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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.