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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the current competition is distinctly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a normal year!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still