This Remarkable Golden Spell Fuels Villa's Surprising Push for Glory

Just two months ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or a cause for the side's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

The Manager's Celebration of Elation

This weekend, though, the sideline response was far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?

This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the wins have accumulated.

As per Opta, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club which has put together 10 in a row, Villa appear curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again against United.

His opener came from a superb shot, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

Can It Last?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the net's top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.

  • Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
  • Jadon Sancho might become the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
  • Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.

The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.

Craig Guzman DDS
Craig Guzman DDS

Rush Lombardi is a seasoned sports betting analyst with over a decade of experience in odds modeling and risk management.