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Market specialists have shown significant skepticism regarding bullish claims that US large firms will quickly commit tens of billions of dollars to rebuild the country's broken oil infrastructure.

Demand for Iron-Clad Protections

Absent an solid promise of full reimbursement from the US federal government, analysts expect global energy giants to move with significant hesitation.

“It is hasty to comment on any potential investments,” a spokesperson stated in response.

The aggressive timeframe of less than 18 months was boldly outlined. Nevertheless, industry projections indicate a more cautious outlook.

A More Realistic Outlook

“It’s probably going to take 36 months for any meaningful output increase,” said one chief investment officer.

Experts believe energy firms would likely spend:

• Initial phase: Securing new government and security contracts.
• Year two: Investing in overhaul of equipment.
• Year three: Being able to boost production.

This would lead to an increase of around half a million bpd possibly by the end of the decade.

Appetite Compared to Appetite for Spending

There is a important separation between companies' curiosity and their appetite to invest heavily.

“I believe their attention is an high score, on a range of one to 10. However, their appetite is a four or five, because there is no clarity yet.”

Seasoned diplomats in the sector share this caution. The thinking is that firms will publicly talk up the opportunity while actually proceeding with extreme caution.

The Enormous Cost

The financial bill would be colossal. Independent estimates suggest that adding between half a million and a million bpd would require over $10 billion in funding over two to three years.

Yet, returning output to peak levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over many more years.

The Pending Issue of Taxpayer Funding

The suggestion of energy companies being reimbursed by the US taxpayer has been often mentioned. But, specific plans on any guarantee have so far not been forthcoming.

This lack of a solid plan is the primary reason behind the industry's reluctance. Firms seek protection against sovereign risk and the risk that a different president could refuse any agreement.

“They must be protected from sovereign risk, that we’ve witnessed in Venezuela before.”

In summary, while political promises runs strong, the financial realities suggest a path of slow deliberation for any large-scale financial commitment in the country's oil sector.